Game 49 Stars @ Maple Leafs 2/7/24

[stugats1]

Cue another loss? Maybe?

Who knows but we are on the borderline of playoffs. I believe we are tied with Detroit. For our talent, thats pathetic.

Gonna try to take it with a grain of salt. If we don't make playoffs do be it.

[TMan]

Trouble is the talent falls off real quick. Watched the last half of Oilers/Knights. That’s how the game should be played. Tremendous speed, physicality, ultra compete, few mistakes, great goaltending. Leafs are capable of this but never enough to win a 7 game gruelling series. Can they figure out how to do it ? Maybe it starts tonight but highly doubtful.

[finnmccool]

Grim news for the leafs, it turns out that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander account for just over 50% of all leafs goals. 

Here’s how the rest are doing
Tyler Bertuzzi 1 goal in his last 28 games.
Max Domi 1 goal in his last 18 games.
John Tavares has 1 goal at 5 on 5 in his last 32 games ( plus 2 pp goals )
Matthew Knies no goals in his last 16 games and just 2 in his last 27 games
David Kampf 0 goals in his last 20 games 
Noah Gregor 0 Goals in his last 19 games.
Calle Jarnkrok 0 goals in his last 9 games
Pontus Holmberg 2 goals. In His last 22 games 
Bobby McMann 1 goal in his last 17 games

At the start of this year I would have never contemplated the leafs not making the playoffs, but looking at these number and how close Detroit and the New York Islanders are to the leafs in the standings the leafs missing the playoffs is a real possibility.

[stugats1]

Those are brutal stats.

To me it boils down to two things seeing that.

The obvious one is too much money on 4 players. The rest are 75% band aids.

Second for me is coaching. The top 4 rely on their big talent to score. I have said this several times. How many players that were brought in has Keefe made better? Anyone can coach big talent but what else has Keefe done? I know first scenario hurts him, but I struggle to find out who he has made better?

I'll be glad when he and Shanahan are gone.

[jayleaf]

Feb 7, 2024 9:59:57 GMT -5 finnmccool said:

Grim news for the leafs, it turns out that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander account for just over 50% of all leafs goals. 

Here’s how the rest a doing
Tyler Bertuzzi 1 goal in his last 28 games.
Max Domi 1 goal in his last 18 games.
John Tavares has 1 goal at 5 on 5 in his last 32 games ( plus 2 pp goals )
Matthew Knies no goals in his last 16 games and just 2 in his last 27 games
David Kampf 0 goals in his last 20 games 
Noah Gregor 0 Goals in his last 19 games.
Calle Jarnkrok 0 goals in his last 9 games
Pontus Holmberg 2 goals I. His last 22 games 
Bobby McMann 1 goal in his last 17 games

At the start of this year I would have never contemplated the leafs not making the playoffs, but looking at these number and how close Detroit and the New York Islanders are to the leafs in the standings the leafs missing the playoffs is a real possibility.

Thanks for the stats finn.  I knew production was bad from after the top three forwards, but this is absolutely appalling.  Their contributions are almost non-existent.  Combined with a lousy defense and goaltending that nobody is calling elite, it paints a pretty grim picture for the Leafs down the stretch.

[TMan]

This is why BT needs to unload free agents before the deadline. Not quite waving the white flag but close. This lineup can’t get it done so change it up. You accomplish a couple of things. You get assets for players that will walk at seasons end. You change the look of the team with hungry minor leaguers and maybe some different players acquired in trade. To continually deal picks/prospect’s especially how this current squad has underperformed is nuts. I really think knowledgeable fans in LN would be onboard with this. Yes? No?

[Barilko]

Feb 7, 2024 9:59:57 GMT -5 finnmccool said:

Grim news for the leafs, it turns out that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander account for just over 50% of all leafs goals. 

Here’s how the rest a doing
Tyler Bertuzzi 1 goal in his last 28 games.
Max Domi 1 goal in his last 18 games.
John Tavares has 1 goal at 5 on 5 in his last 32 games ( plus 2 pp goals )
Matthew Knies no goals in his last 16 games and just 2 in his last 27 games
David Kampf 0 goals in his last 20 games 
Noah Gregor 0 Goals in his last 19 games.
Calle Jarnkrok 0 goals in his last 9 games
Pontus Holmberg 2 goals. In His last 22 games 
Bobby McMann 1 goal in his last 17 games

At the start of this year I would have never contemplated the leafs not making the playoffs, but looking at these number and how close Detroit and the New York Islanders are to the leafs in the standings the leafs missing the playoffs is a real possibility.

One player that I noticed was left out of this comparison: Nic Robertson.

Nic has 7 goals in 30 games this year. That doesn't sound too impressive on the surface, but he's giving us that production while playing less than 11 minutes per game. He has scored more goals per 60 minutes played than anyone other than Matthews, Marner and Nylander, and he has more total 5v5 goals this season than Tavares, Bertuzzi, and Domi -- all of whom have played 18 more games than Robertson, and all of whom average more ice time per game than Robertson.

With Knies hitting a wall and Bertuzzi being hit and miss (mostly miss), I really don't understand why Nic isn't getting a chance in the top six. He would probably be a better fit on the top line, as Matthews' defensive acumen can probably help to compensate for any of Nic's defensive shortcomings.

Just another instance of Keefe failing to get the most out of this lineup.

[Leafs_Pam]

Ouch! Those stats on the players are really bad. I have to agree with Barilko on his comments on Robertson's stats.

Looking at the standings, I have a feeling this game is another loss. Stars are #2 in the Western Conf with 68 pts. The Leafs are #6 in East Conf with 58 pts.

[finnmccool]

Thanks Barilko I some how missed Robertson, but at the same I think Robertson is fine given the limited minutes Keefe gives him. In fact think it's time to up his minutes by putting him into the top six and just leaving him there and see just how good he can be.

[kazzie]

Boy, after looking at those stats it’s not hard to see why we are struggling.  Talk about underachieving !  That being said I’ll be surprised if the boys win tonight.  

[TMan]

Can’t argue with that. He’s earned a shot with the big boys. If Holmberg gets a shot then why not Nick? Knies will be a serviceable player I think. He can hit hard, checks well and seems to see the game well. May be more of an energy 3rd line guy that can move up if needed or maybe he just needs to get used to the rigors of an 82 game season. Keefe may be hesitant to play Nick against opponents top players but he should at least give it a try if they build a good lead or more likely fall behind a lot😁

[finnmccool]

I saw a quote from Matthew Knies a couple of days ago saying he is feeling burnt out. Which is understandable as he came from an NCAA College program who's seasons are much shorter than the NHL. Knies for example played only 40 games last year for the University of Minnesota and even then the NCAA schedule is pretty player friendly with games played on Friday and Saturday nights with 5 days off. So lots of time off between games and they get even more rest during the season as most NCAA college teams have no games during the month of December. What does this all mean, well it means it's a hell of a jump coming straight from college hockey to the NHL, so hearing Knies saying he burnt out doesn't come as a surprise. The NHL is a tough league and I'm sure Knies is going to be fine but we are a long way from knowing just how good Knies is going to be.

[stugats1]

A good coach would know exactly how to work with and deal with Knies and his burnt out feeling.

[finnmccool]

Feb 7, 2024 16:42:32 GMT -5 stugats1 said:

A good coach would know exactly how to work with and deal with Knies and his burnt out feeling.

I'm not a big Keefe fan either, especially after seeing him be out coached in the playoffs the last 3 years. In regards to Knies I think he would have been better served by starting the year in the AHL with the Marlies rather than playing top 6 minutes. 

[Gerard]

The crazy part is almost everyone has underachieved yet we're 3rd in the east although precariously. How the hell are we only 4 back of Boston?

Between being so inconsistent and playing poorly at home its a head scratcher.

You just know were gonna be buyers at the deadline bc Keefe and Shanny's jobs are tied directly to it. 

Im gonna watch and hope. What else can I do?